Predictions
Jeff Pulver’s
Predictions for 2006
As the great physicist Niels Bohr used to by Jeff Pulver, Publisher
say, “Prediction is very difficult, especially
if it’s about the future.”

December and January tend to be the most popular Internet and then appear on Broadcast TV, Cable or Satellite. months for experts and pundits to formulate their industry pre- (c) Look for more TV shows to be become downloadable dictions for the year ahead. Having been part of the IP scene for for viewing on personal communication devices. over 10 years, I enjoy speculating about what will happen over 6. VoIP peering will continue to happen between carriers, but the next 12 months. the business models driving peering will not be worked out un-

This year, my predictions made their first appearance in my til 2007 or beyond. Look for Enterprises to explore the benefits
blog, which can be found at http://pulverblog.pulver.com. You’ll of federating their communication networks.
also find a link there to review and check for accuracy the pre- 7. There will be at least two major acquisitions in the billion-dol-
dictions I made for 2005. lar-plus price range, matching or exceeding eBay’s purchase price to
2005 was the year that IP Communications grew up, and acquire Skype. Majormediaand Internetcompanies willannounce
2006 will be the year when Wall Street and global financial blended, transformational IP-based communications plays.
markets take our industry to the next level. As the interest 8. Hurricanes such as Katrina and other natural disasters in
around the world in IP communications continues to grow, IP the U.S. and around the world will compel the U.S. and other
Communications is ‘disruptive’ communications in the most governments to look to the Internet and IP-based communica-
positive sense, and it will dramatically enhance the ways in tions as the vehicle to improve emergency response and post-
which we communicate. catastrophe communications.
And now, my predictions for 2006… 9. The Internet application providers, such as Google, Yahoo!,
1. Broadband penetration will continue to snowball in the US, eBay and Amazon will increase their presence and influence in
but not at a pace fast enough to raise America’s mediocre global DC and on communications policy.
standing in broadband penetration. We, however, begin to ap- 10. The sides in the communications policy wars will become
preciate the benefits of Metcalf’s Law, as broadband penetration more apparent, with Internet Access Providers on the one side
snowballs and opens the door for an unprecedented surge in and Internet Application Providers on the other.
creativity and uptake of new Internet applications. 11. Governments around the world will look harder at VoIP
2. Lobbyists and Policymakers in the US will continue to try regulation, with an eye towards imposing social obligations such
to apply legacy rules and regulations on Internet based applica- as emergency response, lawful intercept and disabilities access.
tions, be it voice, television or radio. We will see a deepening divide between those countries that
3. In the US, the remaining “Baby Bells” will grow up and hold nurture the emerging industry and technology and those that
a virtual “family reunion” of sorts, which will, in effect, establish stifle innovation by imposition of unnecessary, overly-broad and
“Walled Gardens” in their collective broadband product offer- economically-debilitating one-size-fits-all regulation.
ings. Expect other incumbent operators around the world to join 12. Look for the support of “voice” to become part of the
this implicit cartel. In parallel, Wireless Operators worldwide eCommerce strategy for many Websites.
will continue to roll out their 3G strategies and grow their own 13. Wireless will continue to replace wireline at a faster pace
Walled Gardens, leaving both academics and the Internet pioneers and may also continue to outpace the growth of consumer voice
wondering “what ever happened to the dream of the Arpanet?” over broadband services sold to consumers.

4. The FCC will attempt to extend its definition of indecency 14. ENUM continues to happen around the world and the US laws to the Internet, Cable and Satellite networks. will still lag behind.

5. (a) As filmmakers start to feel comfortable with the 15. The RIM (Research in Motion) patent challenge will concept of going “direct to the Net”, 2006 will be the year become a boon for integrated IP Communication-enabled de-when this starts to become the norm, rather than the vices.V exception.

(b) Look for “Television” shows to premiere first on the Jeff can be reached at: jeff@pulver.com.